CANADIAN Prime Minister Mark Carney?s speech at Davos was one of the clearest enunciations of the strategic adjustment countries, especially middle powers, need to make when faced with a bullying superpower in a fractured world. Without naming the US, he stressed the need for middle powers to resist economic coercion by powerful countries by acting together because if they didn?t, they will ?not be on the table but on the menu?.

While Carney spoke pointedly about the imperative to adapt, countries have already been adjusting to new geostrategic realities and power shifts in a transforming world. Adjustments are of different kinds, from diversifying trade partners to shifts in geopolitical alignments. Some trends have been accelerated by President Donald Trump?s policies, but they were already in evidence in an increasingly multipolar world characterised by structural changes, new power balances and shift in economic power from the West to the rest.

Consider how the EU and others have been boosting trade with China and how Beijing has been diversifying its markets. In 2020, China overtook the US to become the EU?s biggest trading partner. The EU is also China?s largest trading partner, and not as often thought the US. With Washington pursuing a contain-China strategy and tariff war, Beijing has been diversifying its export destinations away from America, a policy it stepped up after Trump?s return to power. This has paid dividends. It accounts for China?s record trade surplus of $1 trillion today with a boom in exports to Southeast Asia and Europe while Chinese exports to the US have declined. The ?strategic? trade and energy partnership between Canada and China is another illustration of countries pursuing trade diversion. As is the recent EU-India free trade agreement. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer?s visit to China last week marks an effort to upgrade business ties between the two countries.

Meanwhile, South-South trade has increased significantly and now accounts for about a quarter of global trade. It has more than doubled between 2007 and 2023 and is projected to rise even further. This indicates the Global South is seeking to chart its own course by leveraging a multipolar environment. How much of the rise in South-South trade is attributable to US tariff policies? It is estimated around 40-45 per cent of the growth since 2018 is due to the disruption caused by US tariffs. Global South countries are trading more with each other and have an increasing number of free trade arrangements between them. They are also investing more among themselves. Their trade with China has increased exponentially and now surpasses that with the US.

Countries are diversifying trade ties and shifting alignments as they adapt to changing global dynamics.

On the geopolitical front, Global South nations, with many middle powers among them, have sought greater global influence and a bigger voice through organisations such as the 11-member BRICS, which is a vehicle for political and diplomatic coordination in different areas. They also seek to make their collective influence felt in international affairs through regional organisations such as the GCC and SCO. Meanwhile, middle powers from the Global South have been pursuing policies of multi-alignment while also playing off the China-US rivalry to enhance their leverage. This has made countries such as Turkiye, more influential international actors.

A different kind of adjustment is being forced on Europe by Trump?s downgrading of the continent, as reflected in his national security strategy, repeated insults of European leaders, disdain of Nato and of course his threat to seize Greenland. The transatlantic alliance is in shambles and the breakdown of trust unprecedented. Although European leaders first tried to flatter and ingratiate Trump, that did not work. The US president only saw it as weakness and pressed his demands on them more forcefully without ceasing his harsh criticism of Europe.

From currying favour with Trump, European countries were obliged to change course. Now a pushback is taking shape reflecting the recognition that Europe can no longer count on the US as an ally and security guarantor. Public opinion in the continent shifted even before European leaders began to consider policy options. A poll commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations found most Europeans did not see the US as a reliable ally any more. Of course, it will not be easy for Europe to reduce its military dependence on Washington. But the need to begin that process is now a major policy concern in European capitals, even as they seek better relations with the US.

Turning to the Middle East, here adjustments by regional powers to America?s gradual disengagement are underway in different forms. While wanting to strengthen relations with Washington, Saudi Arabia for example, has sought to expand its options and also boost ties with China. Its rapprochement with Iran is motivated, among other factors, by the need to address security concerns to pursue its ambitious domestic economic goals but also in anticipation of America?s reduced military and diplomatic footprint in the region. As is its effort to mend ties with Qatar and Turkiye. Against the backdrop of eroding faith in the US defence umbrella and America?s blind support of Israel, the Saudi-Pakistan strategic defence deal reflects Riyadh?s effort to diversify its security partnerships.

The greater prominence of middle powers is another key aspect of changing geopolitics. Structural changes and the dispersal of power in the international system has created an enabling environment for middle powers to wield more influence. Moreover, the US-China competition has offered opportunities and leeway to countries to increase their leverage by playing off that rivalry and pursue an ?independent? course. As Alec Russell wrote in a Financial Times op-ed some time back, ?The age of the Western set menu is over. And the new menu, while heavily influenced by two lead chefs, is still being written? ? a reference to middle powers asserting their right to have a seat at the table. In fact, it is now the two superpowers? turn to adjust to this reality by paying more attention to middle powers and to woo them.

Thus, Carney?s call did not come a day sooner for middle powers to act together to deal with big powers from a position of strength. This can be consequential when the world is nearing the end of the US-led international order.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

Published in Dawn, February 2nd, 2026