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Investors are watching for potential bond sell-offs as major central banks confront war-driven inflation pressure. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 0.4% YES. �...
Trump’s recent comments about a potential end to the Iran conflict and willingness to negotiate by phone have moved prediction markets. The US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sits at 2% YES, while the...
Iran’s Vice President Esmail Saghab Esfahani warned of retaliation against countries supporting attacks on Iran’s infrastructure. The Crude Oil Predictions for June market is now in focus as the t...
Trump’s push for US control of Iran’s nuclear material has collapsed market odds. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 sits at 2.7% YES, down from 7% just 24 hours ago and from 68% a week ago. ...
Senator Thom Tillis has reversed his opposition and now supports Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair. The May 15 confirmation market has surged to 95% YES, up from 29% just 24 hour...
The ongoing war involving Iran has put billions in Gulf-backed deals in jeopardy. Crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 trades at 1.2% YES, down from 2% a day ago. Market reaction Irani�...
Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF, $MSBT, has reached $184 million in total inflows without a single day of outflows, a streak that coincides with geopolitical relief following a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Bit...
A fuel crisis has gripped Tuvalu due to blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil trade. The odds for US crude oil reserves falling to 325M by May 1 sit at 2% YES. Market reaction �...
Bitcoin reached $78,000 as US-Iran tensions pushed traders into crypto, though the probability of a dip to $60,000 in April remains low given current conditions. Market reaction The April 30 market�...
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar’s prediction of imminent US decapitation strikes on Iran complicates ceasefire prospects, with Trump’s end of military operations against Iran by March 31 sitting at 0% ...