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The Strait of Hormuz crisis has driven an 8% surge in crude oil prices, pushing the likelihood of crude hitting $90 by the end of June to ? YES. Market reaction Crude oil markets are responding t�...
Pakistan has ramped up diplomatic efforts with Washington and Tehran to push US-Iran talks forward. “Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?” is at 3.7% YES, up fro...
President Trump is trying to navigate a rocky ceasefire deal with Iran while the Strait of Hormuz re-closes. The US-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 22 sits at 17% YES, down from 40% just�...
Solana’s decentralized exchanges processed a record $1.26 billion in tokenized asset volume in the first quarter of 2026, and the market for Solana reaching $150 by April 1319 currently trades at 22...
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF attracted $906 million in inflows last week, while the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April sits at 36.5% YES. The $80,000 price target dropped from 6...
Senior Iranian sources say nuclear program disagreements remain unresolved with no narrowing of gaps, and the odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 have dropped to 31.4% , down�...
A whale has opened a $90.9 million 20x long position on Ethereum. The Ethereum above $1,800 on April 16 market sits at 100% YES, and Ethereum above $1,700 on April 17 is at 100% YES. Market reac�...
Iran is mulling a law to ban Israeli-linked ships from the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket contract on UK warships transiting the strait by April 30 sits at 8.5% YES. Market reaction The warship�...
Iran says it won’t engage in new talks with the US, pushing the ceasefire end by April 21 market to 22% YES, up from 6% yesterday. The refusal has moved related markets sharply. The Iran uranium ...
US Marines seized the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel M/V Touska in the Arabian Sea on April 19, enforcing the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end...