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Circle faces a class action lawsuit over the Drift Protocol hack, and Solana’s April 16 price market sits at 0.1% YES for breaking $100. The lawsuit, filed by Gibbs Mura, alleges Circle failed to...
The White House will allow federal agencies access to Anthropic’s Claude Mythos AI model, per POLITICO. The market on whether Anthropic will have the third best AI model by April 2026 sits at 40% ...
Trump’s comments on NATO’s lack of support during the Israel-US strikes on Iran have pushed the likelihood of a US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 to 1.2% YES, up slightly from 1% yesterday. T...
Trump signaled Iran’s increased willingness to negotiate, pushing odds of a deal on oil sanctions in April to 36% YES. The market climbed from 34% yesterday and 28% a week ago. Trump’s remarks ...
President Trump raised concerns over recent mysterious deaths of U.S. scientists, hinting at possible Iranian espionage links. The odds of a qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 2%�...
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that President Trump remains committed to maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the May 31 lifting market to 82% YES. Market ...
The US House rejected a resolution to withdraw troops from Iran by a 213-214 vote. The market on the US declaring war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is at 7.5% YES. Market reaction The April 30 ma�...
Trump stated “If there’s no deal, fighting resumes,” adding geopolitical tension to crypto markets. The Bitcoin $60,000 dip market sits at 15% YES for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April. Mar...
President Trump expressed optimism about a potential deal with Iran, citing the effectiveness of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 �...
A White House memo signals possible agency access to a modified version of Anthropics restricted Mythos model, which remains under tight controls over cyber misuse fears. The US government is prepari�...